SOC Aviation System Resilience App

Predicting Cascading Failures in National Airspace System Networks

Monitor Traffic Flow

Test Scenarios

Strengthen Infrastructure

Step 1: Select Aviation System Network

The aviation system networks below represent critical infrastructure components vulnerable to cascading failures. This step allows you to explore how different network types respond to stress, identify weak points, and simulate the impact of localized disruptions on the National Airspace System.

What You Can Do: Select a network to evaluate its fragility, discover potential choke points, and run scenarios that reveal how disruptions can escalate across the aviation system.

✈️ National Airspace System Core

CRITICAL

Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs), Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facilities, and control towers handling 95% of US air traffic. High hub concentration makes this vulnerable to coordinated disruptions targeting 3-5 critical control centers simultaneously.

Risk Scenarios: ARTCC Failure, TRACON Outage, Tower Shutdown

22 ARTCCs Cascade Risk: EXTREME

🛬 Airport Operations Network

HIGH

Major hub airports, regional airports, and supporting infrastructure including ground handling, fuel systems, and passenger processing. Small-world topology creates potential for systemic passenger and cargo cascade failures affecting airline operations nationwide.

Risk Scenarios: Hub Closure, Weather Delays, Ground Stop

29 Hub Airports Cascade Risk: HIGH

📡 Air Navigation Systems

HIGH

GPS satellites, VOR/DME stations, ILS systems, and radar installations essential for aircraft navigation and approach guidance. Geographic concentration with coordinated disruptions on key navigation nodes could trigger widespread flight diversions and safety concerns.

Risk Scenarios: GPS Jamming, Radar Failure, ILS Outage

1,200+ Nav Aids Cascade Risk: HIGH

🌐 Airline Route Network

MEDIUM

Commercial airline route structures, crew scheduling systems, and aircraft positioning networks. Scale-free topology is more resilient due to route redundancy but vulnerable to coordinated hub disruptions or fleet-wide technical issues.

Risk Scenarios: Hub Congestion, Crew Shortage, Fleet Grounding

5,000+ Routes Cascade Risk: MEDIUM

Step 2: Aviation System Disruption Model and Scenario Configuration

Choose disruption types and failure modes to simulate stress patterns across the aviation system. The SOC parameters will be automatically configured to reflect the selected scenario and estimate cascading impacts on air traffic operations.

Select Disruption Scenario

🌪️ Severe Weather Event

AV-1

Major thunderstorm systems, hurricanes, or winter storms causing widespread airport closures, air traffic delays, and flight diversions. Known for creating rapid cascade effects across interconnected hub airports and air routes.

Primary Impacts:

Airport Closures Flight Diversions Ground Stops

SOC Parameters: β=0.94 (rapid propagation), θ=0.68 (weather sensitivity)

🔒 Cyber Security Incident

AV-2

Coordinated cyber attacks targeting air traffic control systems, airport operations, and airline reservation platforms. Demonstrated capability to disrupt air traffic management and passenger processing systems across multiple facilities.

Primary Impacts:

ATC Systems Communication Loss Data Corruption

SOC Parameters: β=0.91 (system propagation), θ=0.78 (digital dependencies)

⚙️ Critical Equipment Failure

AV-3

Major failures in radar systems, navigation aids, or communication equipment affecting air traffic control operations. Single points of failure in critical infrastructure can cascade through dependent systems and alternate routing protocols.

Primary Impacts:

Radar Outage Nav Aid Loss Reduced Capacity

SOC Parameters: β=0.87 (equipment cascades), θ=0.72 (system redundancy)

📈 Air Traffic Volume Surge

AV-4

Sudden increases in air traffic volume due to holiday travel, special events, or weather-related diversions overwhelming system capacity. Demonstrates how demand spikes can exceed infrastructure limits and trigger widespread delays and cancellations.

Primary Impacts:

Capacity Overload Delay Propagation Ground Delays

SOC Parameters: β=0.89 (demand cascades), θ=0.75 (capacity thresholds)

Aviation System Scenario Configuration

Disruption Timeline

Determines failure pattern and SOC simulation timing parameters

Initial Failure Point

Affects initial stress distribution and propagation patterns

Impact Scope

Influences cascade failure thresholds and propagation dynamics

Operational Context

Affects system stress tolerance and failure intensity parameters

Advanced SOC Parameters (Auto-configured based on selections)

Stress Redistribution (β)

0.94

Auto-set based on disruption scenario

Failure Threshold (θ)

0.72

Based on system resilience

Disruption Intensity (Δs)

0.18

Calibrated to disruption scenario

Simulation Horizon

72 hours

Critical response window

SOC Aviation System Analysis in Progress

Analyzing theoretical aviation system cascade scenarios...

Initializing aviation system simulation...

Real-time Analysis

Establishing baseline aviation system state...

Executive Summary

HIGH

Overall Disruption Risk

78%

Cascade Failure Probability

3.2h

Mean Time to Cascade

CRITICAL

Aviation System Impact

Key Findings

Critical Facilities

Cascade Pathways

Resilience Strategies

Strategic Intelligence

Technical Analysis

High-Risk Aviation Facilities

Aviation facilities that, if disrupted, would trigger the most severe cascade failures across the National Airspace System.

Critical Dependencies

Cross-system dependencies that amplify cascade effects across aviation networks and air traffic control systems.

SOC Aviation System Resilience App

Step 1: Select Aviation System Network

✈️ National Airspace System Core

🛬 Airport Operations Network

📡 Air Navigation Systems

🌐 Airline Route Network

Step 2: Aviation System Disruption Model and Scenario Configuration

Select Disruption Scenario

🌪️ Severe Weather Event

🔒 Cyber Security Incident

⚙️ Critical Equipment Failure

📈 Air Traffic Volume Surge

Aviation System Scenario Configuration

Advanced SOC Parameters (Auto-configured based on selections)

SOC Aviation System Analysis in Progress

Real-time Analysis

Aviation Network Stress Visualization

Executive Summary

Key Findings

High-Risk Aviation Facilities

Critical Dependencies

Most Critical Failure Sequences

Initial Failure Points

Recommended Resilience Measures

Early Warning Strategies

Research Requirements

Disruption Indicators

SOC Model Parameters

Aviation Network Topology Analysis