Wednesday, March 5, 2025
Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) in Network Cascade Failures
Our latest research examines how self-organized criticality emerges in complex interconnected networks under medium retention scenarios. The cascade failure patterns reveal striking power-law distributions characteristic of SOC systems.
This visualization-driven analysis demonstrates how Delta-Inspired Hub-and-Spoke networks exhibit threshold behaviors where small initial perturbations can lead to system-wide cascade failures, with important implications for infrastructure resilience planning.
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Friday, Feb 28, 2025
Generalizing the Classical Risk Formula: A Spatial Latent Process Approach
The classical risk formula expresses damage as a product of asset value and hazard-dependent vulnerability, has served as the foundation of natural hazard risk assessment for decades. While this multiplicative approach has provided valuable insights, the complexity of damage mechanisms suggests the need for a more comprehensive framework.
This research introduces a generalized risk formula that integrates spatial latent processes to capture complex interactions between assets and hazards that the classical multiplication cannot represent.
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Sunday, Jan 27, 2025
Multi-Hazard Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Damage Prediction
A fundamental theoretical limitation undermines current disaster risk models. Existing approaches suffer from two critical constraints: predominantly deterministic models with fixed parameters, and an assumption of hazard independence that contradicts the reality of cascading and compound disasters.
This work develops the Multi-Hazard Bayesian Hierarchical Model (MH-BHM), which reconceptualizes the classical risk equation as a fully probabilistic model that accommodates hazard interactions.
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